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title of the paper: Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.04.002
keywords: overdispersion, maximum likelihood, risk assessment, detection
Parameters: dispersion, r0, rt
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From the paper:
"Recent studies have quantified the variability implied by different data sets of MERS cluster sizes resulting from importation of cases. These studies quantified transmission probabilities using a negative binomial offspring distribution within a branching process outbreak model, assuming that every infected individual transmits with an average of R0 transmissions and dispersion parameter k. In this paper, we extend the results of the above work to allow the reproductive number R to vary across subsequent generations of transmissions during an outbreak [and derive] the joint probability of a cluster of total size j consisting of exactly g generations of transmission."
original entry: https://github.com/UT-IDDynamics/wepidemics/blob/main/data/arabian-peninsula.md